Box office forecast

Editor‘s Note:

The National Day holiday is a major box-office earner for the Chinese mainland. In 2019, the holiday brought in 4.38 billion yuan ($642 million) in a single week. While 2020‘s National Day box office is sure to be impacted by COVID-19, a number of big releases such as Leap, Legend of Deification and Vanguard are sure to help cinemas see an impressive haul over the 8-day holiday.

National Day holiday films: Pre-sale and most anticipated list

Source: Maoyan Graphic: GT

Anticipation level by demographic

Source: Maoyan Graphic: GT

Source: Maoyan and Box Office Mojo Graphics: GT

Forecast for 2020 National Day box office

Experts: Wang Shu: Data analyst from China‘s ticketing platform Beacon; Shi Wenxue:Film critic based in Beijing; Xiao Fuqiu: Film critic based in Shanghai

Opinion: “Going to movies will be the main form of entertainment during the National Day holiday due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.”

“China is allowing theaters to operate up to 75 percent of normal capacity, up from the previous 50 percent.”

“Film discount coupons are on offer through various apps.”

“The box office of 2020‘s National Day could account for 40 percent of the entire year‘s box office due to COVID-19.” 

“The Chinese mainland box office is very likely to surpass North America to top the 2020 global box office due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.” 

“The Chinese mainland box office is highly likely to exceed $2 billion in 2020.”

Newspaper headline: Box office forecast


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